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S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Shows Home Prices End The Year 6.3% Higher Than 2016

NEW YORK, Feb. 27, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain in December, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, no change from the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.4% in the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In December, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 11.1% increase, and San Francisco with a 9.2% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2017 versus the year ending November 2017.

The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for the top two cities, Seattle and Las Vegas.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported increases of 0.2%. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.6% month-over-month increases. Twelve of the 20 cities reported increases in December before seasonal adjustment, while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS

“The rise in home prices should be causing the same nervous wonder aimed at the stock market after its recent bout of volatility,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Across the 20 cities covered by S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the average increase from the financial crisis low is 62%; over the same period, inflation was 12.4%. None of the cities covered in this release saw real, inflation-adjusted prices fall in 2017. The National Index, which reached its low point in 2012, is up 38% in six years after adjusting for inflation, a real annual gain of 5.3%. The National Index’s average annual real gain from 1976 to 2017 was 1.3%. Even considering the recovery from the financial crisis, we are experiencing a boom in home prices.

“Within the last few months, there are beginning to be some signs that gains in housing may be leveling off. Sales of existing homes fell in December and January after seasonal adjustment and are now as low as any month in 2017. Pending sales of existing homes are roughly flat over the last several months. New home sales appear to be following the same trend as existing home sales. While the price increases do not suggest any weakening of demand, mortgage rates rose from 4% to 4.4% since the start of the year. It is too early to tell if the housing recovery is slowing. If it is, some moderation in price gains could be seen later this year.”

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

Index

Level

Date

Level

Date

From Peak (%)

Level

From Trough (%)

From Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

196.23

46.4%

6.3%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

204.45

52.5%

-1.0%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

218.41

49.1%

-3.5%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for December 2017. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

December 2017

December/November

November/October

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

140.52

0.3%

0.1%

5.4%

Boston

204.75

-0.2%

-0.1%

5.5%

Charlotte

151.30

0.1%

-0.3%

5.9%

Chicago

138.53

-0.6%

-0.5%

2.6%

Cleveland

117.34

-0.3%

-0.5%

3.5%

Dallas

180.72

0.1%

0.1%

6.9%

Denver

203.93

0.6%

0.3%

7.4%

Detroit

117.51

0.0%

-0.2%

7.1%

Las Vegas

170.86

0.8%

0.7%

11.1%

Los Angeles

272.05

0.7%

0.7%

7.5%

Miami

227.96

-0.1%

0.2%

3.6%

Minneapolis

162.92

-0.4%

-0.1%

5.2%

New York

195.34

0.0%

0.0%

5.4%

Phoenix

173.82

0.2%

-0.1%

5.6%

Portland

223.29

0.2%

0.0%

6.8%

San Diego

246.29

0.2%

-0.3%

7.4%

San Francisco

252.51

0.5%

1.4%

9.2%

Seattle

232.50

0.6%

0.2%

12.7%

Tampa

203.08

0.3%

1.0%

6.2%

Washington

221.49

-0.2%

0.1%

2.8%

Composite-10

218.41

0.2%

0.3%

6.0%

Composite-20

204.45

0.2%

0.2%

6.3%

U.S. National

196.23

0.2%

0.2%

6.3%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through December 2017

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

December/November Change (%)

November/October Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

0.3%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

Boston

-0.2%

0.3%

-0.1%

0.4%

Charlotte

0.1%

0.5%

-0.3%

0.2%

Chicago

-0.6%

0.3%

-0.5%

0.8%

Cleveland

-0.3%

0.2%

-0.5%

0.0%

Dallas

0.1%

0.6%

0.1%

0.7%

Denver

0.6%

1.2%

0.3%

0.9%

Detroit

0.0%

0.7%

-0.2%

0.7%

Las Vegas

0.8%

1.1%

0.7%

1.1%

Los Angeles

0.7%

0.9%

0.7%

1.0%

Miami

-0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

Minneapolis

-0.4%

0.4%

-0.1%

0.5%

New York

0.0%

0.5%

0.0%

0.8%

Phoenix

0.2%

0.5%

-0.1%

0.2%

Portland

0.2%

0.7%

0.0%

0.7%

San Diego

0.2%

0.5%

-0.3%

0.2%

San Francisco

0.5%

1.1%

1.4%

1.9%

Seattle

0.6%

1.2%

0.2%

1.1%

Tampa

0.3%

0.4%

1.0%

1.0%

Washington

-0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

0.6%

Composite-10

0.2%

0.6%

0.3%

0.8%

Composite-20

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

0.7%

U.S. National

0.2%

0.7%

0.2%

0.6%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through December 2017

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.

ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES

S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has become home to over 1,000,000 indices across the spectrum of asset classes that have helped define the way investors measure and trade the markets.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spdji.com.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

David Blitzer
Managing Director and Chairman of Index Committee
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 3907
david.blitzer@spglobal.com

Soogyung Jordan
Global Head of Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 2297
soogyung.jordan@spglobal.com

Luke Shane
North America Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 8184
luke.shane@spglobal.com

S&P Dow Jones Indices’ interactive blog, HousingViews.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.housingviews.com, where feedback and commentary is welcomed and encouraged.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.

Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries (“CoreLogic”) and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.

SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices

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